The Growing Impact of Depression on Society
How economic, social, and environmental factors influence mental health
Welcome to the latest edition of Trend Hacker!
I’m thrilled to have you join me as we explore some of the most pressing “forces of the future.”
In this edition, we will examine a vital issue that affects countless lives, in line with May’s emphasis on raising awareness of current and future mental health challenges. First, we will discuss depression, which afflicts over 300 million people worldwide, and cases have grown 18% in the last decade. Now imagine that only 10% of those people get treatment.
Why Talk About Depression?
The reason could not be more critical. Hundreds of millions of people are suffering from this mental health disorder. Still, depression is also a significant risk factor for suicide, with an estimated 800,000 people affected worldwide (WHO, 2021). For example, in the USA, suicide rates increased by 35% between 1999 and 2018 (CDC), affecting primarily middle-aged white men (AFSP, 2022). In Europe, we see a different trend, with a 20% drop in suicide rates from 2011 to 2019 due to a combination of measures, including limiting access to the means of suicide, fostering socio-emotional life skills in adolescents, and early identification and support networks (European Psychiatric Association, 2023).
From an economic perspective, lost productivity due to two of the most common mental disorders, anxiety, and depression, costs the global economy $1 trillion annually. In total, poor mental health was estimated to cost the world economy approximately $2.5 trillion per year in poor health. Moreover, it reduced productivity in 2010 and is projected to rise to $6 trillion by 2030 (The Lancet, 2020).
Also, it is estimated that 20% of lost healthy days are due to depression, not to mention its cost to the health care system. As this topic becomes more common, the demand for mental health services and resources will grow, putting pressure on healthcare systems and providers.
Lastly, depression increases inequality in society and reduces the success of re-educational programs due to difficulties with concentration and motivation, directly impacting learning progress. Such programs might become even more necessary with the upcoming wave of AI.
Understanding Depression in the Context of Foresight
What would it be if we needed to classify depression in the “types of future changes “? I would classify it as a “driving force “and a “complex systemic problem. “Let’s briefly define these terms:
A Driving Force results from several trends, early signs, and events with a common characteristic — the move all in the same direction in the future space. They are loosely or firmly connected and impact different parts of reality. As a result, they represent structures with a high probability of change. In simpler terms, a process that connects several types of information or changes from different contexts.
A „complex systemic problem“ involves multiple interconnected components within a more extensive system, making it difficult to understand and solve due to inherent complexity, non-linear relationships, and emergent properties.
Why is this definition important?
Depression is a complex systemic problem and cannot be solved immediately with a single solution. Instead, it must be addressed through various systematic approaches. This means driving awareness is critical so that different actors from multiple angles act on it to take the momentum out of the driving force. Moreover, as depression is linked to human emotions, it might never be eradicated without losing humanity. Still, we can work together to limit its impact and contribute positively.
What drives depression?
Depression is a complex combination of factors ranging from individual characteristics like genetic predisposition and personality traits to societal realities such as isolation and stress and external triggers like political instability and economic crises. So put, depression can be seen as a long-term “overload” that affects each individual differently. For example, some people may experience this overload more quickly, while others might have a higher level of resilience.
There are many contributors, and it’s impossible to list them all, but let’s explore a few selected ones:
Societal Change
The societal change highlights the rising challenges and stress individuals face daily, exacerbating mental health issues like depression. This concern arises from factors such as the AI wave, fear of job replacements, economic crises, political instability, job loss fears due to technology, and increasing societal competitiveness. These aspects capture the pace and uncertainty in our evolving future, stressing the struggle to secure essential needs.
The burden of survival
The need for survival, the accompanying fear, and real implications may be among the most significant external drivers. Inflation will not reach target levels until 2025 (IMF, 2023). The spillover effects of fear from Russia’s war in Ukraine continue to impact the markets, with further geopolitical uncertainties emerging. Consequently, we might see a widening gap between the rich and the poor, resulting in hopelessness, despair, and a lack of control over one’s life. Factors like rising income inequality, wage stagnation, and economic shifts profoundly impact the middle class in developed nations.
Furthermore, financial hardships limit access to mental health care, exacerbating depression symptoms for those who cannot afford treatment. Finally, the AI wave of job replacements will most likely affect a more significant population between 2027-2029 (Egger 2023), with earlier impacts on independent creative solution providers.
As the world becomes increasingly competitive, the pressure to succeed in professional and personal domains can take a toll on mental health. Balancing career demands, family responsibilities, and emotional well-being may lead to burnout, chronic stress, and depression.
Environmental factors
Additionally, we will experience an increasing effect of extreme environmental events. For example, the World Bank estimates that by 2030, climate change impacts could push an additional 100 million people into poverty, with 3.3 to 3.6 billion people being highly vulnerable due to their location and circumstances (lshtm, 2023). The impact of extreme weather events will also be felt in developed countries, where an average of 189 million people have affected annually (reliefweb, 2022). Furthermore, the distress of losing physical possessions, housing, or in the worst cases, the lives of family members or friends further increases the emotional stress on people.
Misinformation
Lastly, we should consider the increasing spread of fake news and the growing technological possibilities for communicative manipulation. 80% of US adults consumed fake news, and 38.2% accidentally shared it on social media (Statistica, 2022). Misinformation may increase anxiety, exhaustion from negative communication, and heightened anger, often directed at specific audiences, reducing openness and inclusiveness and even can destroy the relationship between friends and family members.
A New Lifestyle
Low social cohesion, isolation, loneliness, and unfulfilled personal aspirations are all intensifying in today’s society, impacting many individuals. For those prone to depression, establishing social connections can positively overcome such challenges. This doesn’t necessarily mean our current lifestyle is moving in the wrong direction; instead, it underscores the importance of awareness of potential consequences and the need for possible course corrections. As a result, it highlights the vital role of support networks in assisting people with mental health disorders. These networks are essential for younger individuals, particularly those aged 65 and above. By 2050, they will comprise 16% of the global population (UN, 2019). It is estimated that 5.7% of this demographic, equating to 90 million people, will experience depression.
Social media and self-esteem:
The need for positive social feedback defines many lifestyles. Unfortunately, constant exposure to idealized images and experiences on social media can lead to unfavorable comparisons and diminished self-esteem, increasing the risk of depression. According to research from Brown University, about 1 in 4 users of TikTok, Instagram, and Snapchat experience negative social comparisons and feel daily pressure to showcase their best versions. The use of “perfection filters” only exacerbates the problem. A Wall Street Journal report found that “32% of teen girls said that when they felt bad about their bodies, Instagram made them feel worse,” and “among teens who reported suicidal thoughts, 13% of British users and 6% of American users traced the issue to Instagram.”
Sleep deprivation and social media:
A further side effect of social media is increased sleep deprivation. This topic is also more easily manageable and impacts the development of depression. Sleep deprivation affects 1 in 3 adults (CDC), significantly impairing attention, cognition, and emotional balance. The wave of smart sleep wearables may help reduce sleep deprivation. Still, they might not be accessible for low-income individuals, who are 1.5 to 3 times more affected by depression, anxiety, or other mental health issues (Science, 2022).
Substance dependency:
Dependency on addictive substances is expected to rise differently across continents. The highest increase in substance dependency is predicted in Africa until 2030. At the same time, Europe is the only continent to see a slight decrease (UNODC). Currently, 4% of the global population uses cannabis, 0.4% cocaine, 1.2% opioids, and 0.5% amphetamines. When adding abusive alcohol consumption, the total number of people affected reaches 9.5-10% of the world population, or approximately 800 million. In the worst cases, such addictive behavior leads to overdoses. According to the UNODC 2021 World Drug Report, more than 106,000 individuals in the US died from drug-involved overdoses in 2021, more than double that a decade ago (CDC). The rising struggle for survival due to poverty, economic challenges, inequality, geopolitical uncertainties, and fear of job loss from technological advancements will likely contribute to a further increase in dependency worldwide.
Is the Future Dark and Lost?
Absolutely not. Although we see many reinforcing trends that will challenge our mental health, we also observe positive evolvements.
Awareness is increasing, exemplified by May being designated “Mental Health” month. Though Google Trends show that the term “depression” hasn’t seen increased searches worldwide in the last decade, raising awareness remains crucial for individuals and the economy. Each individual count and every US$1 invested in scaling up treatment for depression yields a return of US$4 in better health and ability to work (WHO). So if this newsletter increases awareness for even one of its thousand readers, it’s worthwhile.
We see an exciting movement from governments and shareholders toward better health. For instance, Dr. Pepper and Coca-Cola Co. received shareholder requests to reduce sugar in their products. Nestle received a similar demand from institutional investors (FT, 2023) due to increasing governmental regulation on labeling and limiting sugar, sodium, and saturated fats in products.
Though the digital divide persists, the COVID-19 pandemic accelerated telehealth services adoption, positively impacting mental health services. Conor Steward sees a doubling in the global telemedical market size from 2023 to 2030. In the US, telehealth visits account for over 20% of all medical visits (McKinsey, 2020), with forecasts predicting 43% of the US population becoming regular telehealth users by 2025 (eMarketer, 2021). This trend is seen worldwide, with 16-20% growth rates. A University of California, San Francisco study found telehealth visits for depression as effective as in-person visits. With the AI movement, AI companions may support various mental health disorders, from anxiety to depression. We only have to guarantee that these services are affordable to many.
Also noteworthy is the positive impact of “greener cities” or nature-based interventions. Laws like France’s “green roof law” for new buildings are a step forward. Transforming streets into green social areas, should be the next step, and could significantly positively influence depression, as social connection is a driver of loneliness.
Final Thoughts
Awareness of this topic is essential. Therefore, I encourage you to explore the resources provided, engage in discussions, and consider how to support mental well-being in your life, family, friends, and community. In addition, please feel free to share your experiences and opinions on this emerging and critical issue.
If Trend Hacker interests you, please support me by:
Inviting friends interested in learning about future trends and innovation.
Sharing the newsletter on your socials, favorite talks, and thinkers.
The Growing Impact of Depression on Society
Thank you for this well researched article. It really is eye opening that our society needs to put mental health issues more into perspective. I think a major driver for improvement is to treat other people (even strangers) with empathy and respect – independently from the fact we might not know them or benefit from a relationship.